Portfolio Adviser • Portfolio Adviser - January 2019 • Economic Summary

● In 2018, the UK index suffered its worst year since the financial crisis, with 12.5% losses.

● Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revealed that business investment was 2.2% lower in Q3 ’18, compared with Q3 ’17. The last time it was like this was in 2003.

● UK inflation fell from 2.4% to 2.3% in November as falling oil prices provided a further boost to living standards, according to the ONS.

● Italy has raised concerns of being on the brink of another recession after its manufacturing sector recorded below the line of growth at 49.2 for December.

● French Europe minister Nathalie Loiseau said there is no chance of Theresa May renegotiating the Brexit deal, insisting the agreement on offer is the best possible.

● According to Rating Agency Malaysia, the Business Confidence Index for both corporates and small to medium-sized enterprises showed a decline for the first half of 2018.

● Malaysian finance minister Lim Guan Eng said 2019 will be a challenge due to the ongoing US-China trade war, geopolitical concerns in the Middle East, global monetary tightening and swings in oil prices.

● Hawaii’s economic growth could be affected as its population has declined for two consecutive years.

● The Philippine economy likely grew 6.5-6.7% in 2018, maintaining one of the world’s fastest growth rates, said budget secretary Benjamin Diokno.

● Job openings outnumbered unemployed workers across the US, according to the Department of Labour, which could put pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

● US and Chinese officials held their first face-to-face negotiations since a 90-day truce was declared in the trade war, in the hope of ending further confrontation between the world’s two largest economies.

● The Indian economy is expected to grow at 7.2% in 2018-19, slightly higher than 6.7% the previous year, mainly due to improvement in the performance of agriculture and manufacturing sectors, according to the central statistics office.

● The Chinese economy is suffering and more vulnerable to the fallout in the current trade war with the US, according US commerce secretary Wilbur Ross.

● Morocco’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low 2.25%, despite risks of an economic slowdown.

● According to the National Institute of Statistics, the consumer price index for families in Tunisia rose to 7.5% in 2018, after inflation rose from 6.9% in January to 7.5% in December.

● Kenya’s international visitor arrivals increased from 1.47 million in 2017 to 2. 02 million in 2018, representing a growth of about 37%, according to Najib Balala, cabinet secretary for the Ministry of Tourism & Wildlife.

● The Bank of Japan is considering lowering its fiscal 2019 forecast for consumer price growth at its January meeting, to about 1% from last October’s 1.4%, with policymakers also looking at a downward revision to the fiscal forecast of 1.5%.

● Japan’s economy contracted by 2. 5% in the third quarter of 2018 due to weaker consumer demand and corporate investment, marking its worst downturn in four years.